Bank of Canada to hold rates through 2020, call on a knife’s edge

General Simon Wong 27 Nov

Bank of Canada to hold rates through 2020, call on a knife’s edge

 

The Bank of Canada is now expected to hold rates through to the end of next year, according to a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll, with forecasts on whether or not the central bank holds or cuts sitting on a knife’s edge through 2020.

The latest Reuters poll of over 30 economists taken Nov. 19-26 showed the BoC will hold its key overnight interest rate at 1.75% this year and next, flipping from equally narrow expectations for a rate cut early next year in the last poll.

That change in expectations was primarily driven by comments from BoC officials – Governor Stephen Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins – who spoke last week at separate events about Canada’s monetary conditions being “about right” despite global trade tensions.

Every respondent in the poll expected rates to remain on hold at the conclusion of the BoC’s Dec. 4 meeting, in line with market expectations..

When asked if the Canadian economy actually needs a rate cut before the end of next year, a slim majority of economists – 13 of 24 – said no. Just a month back, a similar set of economists were slightly inclined toward a cut.

“The Bank is going to be patient here and not going to be in a great rush. … I think they will want to save ammunition for when the situation potentially deteriorates more significantly, which I am not expecting anytime soon,” said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1 Credit in Vancouver.

“But, the global situation is still unsettled given the U.S.-China trade issues and the impact that it is having on commodity prices, which is still important for Canada and overall sentiment as well.”

Notably, four of the top five major Canadian banks expected the BoC to cut rates at least once by end-2020.

The BoC has stayed on the sidelines this year given its strong domestic economy, diverging from its major peers like the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank which have already cut rates. The ECB has also re-started its asset purchases program.

While both headline and core inflation have hovered around the central bank’s target of about 2% since May, the Canadian economy was expected to lose growth momentum over the coming year, a separate Reuters survey showed.

“In order to keep inflation in the future where it is today, it would warrant interest rate cuts to build a feed through to the economy to help support inflation at the current levels,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD.

After growing by a stronger-than-expected annualized rate of 3.7% in the second quarter, Canadian economic growth likely slowed to 1.2% in the third quarter, according to a weekly Reuters poll.

If that forecast is realized, it would put further pressure on the BoC to cut rates next year.

Canada’s house prices were also predicted to rise only modestly over the coming years and will not return to boom times any time soon, a separate Reuters poll of economists and property market analysts predicted.

Still, conviction among economists – 18 of 23 – around what the central bank would do with rates has either decreased or stayed the same over the past month. Only five said they were more confident.

“The BoC’s leaning in favor of long-term financial stability, particularly regarding household debt, remains a roadblock for policy rate cuts. It appears to us only a global recession would force the hand of the BoC to ease,” said Dominique Lapointe, economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.

Experts, officials meet at Microsoft HQ to discuss high-speed rail between Vancouver and U.S.

General Simon Wong 9 Nov

Experts, officials meet at Microsoft HQ to discuss high-speed rail between Vancouver and U.S.

Experts from around the world are in Seattle to discuss the future of high-speed rail between B.C. and Washington State. Ted Chernecki reports.
 

A proposed high-speed rail line is getting another boost in support this week as business leaders, government officials and experts meet in Seattle to discuss a possible high-speed rail line between B.C. and Oregon.

The three-day Cascadia Rail Summit began Wednesday at Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond, Wash., inviting more than a dozen speakers to discuss the long-in-the-works project.

Those speakers made the case that the rail line would have nothing but positive impacts on the Pacific Northwest, tying the region’s economic interests together while helping improve housing affordability in both Vancouver and Seattle.

READ MORE: Vancouver-Portland ultra-fast train could be self-sustaining by 2055 or earlier: Study

“In order to tie Vancouver and British Columbia up with its neighbours, and to link its economy with the rest of the region and the world, it’s about transportation,” SNCF America spokesperson Jerry Ray said.

“I think it is inevitable that you’re going to do it.”

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Major benefits

A high-speed rail corridor has long been discussed between the three major cities in Cascadia, providing travellers with a potential one-hour trip between Vancouver and Seattle.

The train would be capable of travelling up to 400 kilometres an hour and would encourage drivers to get off the road.

In 2018, B.C. contributed $300,000 to a Washington State Department of Transportation study, which examined whether such a project could attract enough riders and generate sufficient revenue.

That study, released in July, found that the project could attract between 1.7 million and three million annual trips by 2040 and generate between US$156 million and US$250 million in fare revenues, making it “one of the best performing rail services in North America.”

That would be enough to cover costs by 2055, according to the study, which also said a 10 per cent boost in ridership coupled with a 10 per cent decrease in operating costs could make it self-sustaining by 2040.

Microsoft co-hosting the summit at its headquarters was no accident. The software giant has kicked in $573,667 to various feasibility studies, including the Washington state study and an upcoming one from the Cascadia Innovation Corridor.

READ MORE: B.C. government jumping on board high speed rail case study

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The company’s government affairs director Irene Plenefisch said the project would allow workers across industries to live farther out from major cities, potentially cooling those major real estate markets.

“We see this as an opportunity to address those issues, to enable people to … commute into their work without getting into single-occupancy vehicles and incurring the negative environmental affects that result from that kind of travel,” she said.

Anthony Perl, a professor of urban studies at Simon Fraser University, said it would also give further opportunities to B.C. tech workers and allow that industry to grow exponentially.

“[It] would connect us to some of the high-tech, knowledge-based, growth-oriented future that is really more sustainable, as we see when we look around British Columbia to the extraction of non-renewable resources,” he said.

Funding in limbo

The Washington state study says design and detailed route planning remains years away, with construction imagined between 2027 and 2034.

It also found the project could be completed for between US$24 billion and US$42 billion, as estimated in a prior 2017 feasibility study.

The cost pales in comparison to the estimated $108 billion cost of adding just one lane in each direction on Interstate 5 through Washington state.

But how to pay for the rail project continues to be in flux, and was thrown a new curveball this week after Washington state voters approved an initiative capping a major source of transit revenue.

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I-976 caps vehicle registration fees in the state, also known as “car tabs,” at $30 — bringing them down from up to $80 in some areas, including Seattle.

The result immediately prompted Washington Gov. Jay Inslee to order the postponement of any transit projects not already underway.

READ MORE: Washington state governor optimistic about high-speed rail between Seattle and Vancouver

The state’s budget office estimates the passage of I-976 will eliminate more than $4 billion in tax revenue by 2025.

That revenue was counted on to help pay for a $54 billion mass transit expansion approved by voters in 2016, which includes light rail throughout Puget Sound.

The B.C. government mentioned the project in its most recent Throne Speech as one it is continuing to work on with Washington state’s government.

How Is the Retail Banking Landscape in Canada Changing? Experts at Infiniti Investigate the Latest Canadian Retail Banking Trends

General Simon Wong 5 Nov

How Is the Retail Banking Landscape in Canada Changing? Experts at Infiniti Investigate the Latest Canadian Retail Banking Trends

How Is the Retail Banking Landscape in Canada Changing? Experts at Infiniti Investigate the Latest Canadian Retail Banking Trends

A well-known market intelligence company, Infiniti Research, has announced the completion of its latest article on the evolving retail banking landscape in Canada. This article provides comprehensive insights into:

The pressure on retail banking companies and other financial institutions in Canada remains high. This is making innovation and customer satisfaction more important than ever before for players in the retail banking sector,” says a retail banking industry expert at Infiniti Research.

Retail banking trends in Canada

Unbundling services

Canada will soon be exposed to open banking regulations that will fragment traditional retail asset and liability gatherings. Open banking refers to common interfaces among banks and third parties to facilitate more competition and also create new business opportunities. Although retail banking companies had sought a vertical approach that offers services from top to bottom over several decades, now several new entrants in retail banking want to be ‘horizontal’ and dominate an attractive specialty.

Rising interest rates

Interest rates are gradually rising from historic lows and consumers are soon bound to be challenged by debt levels. The retail banking industry will reflect the changing environment with an increased focus on the impact of rising interest rates, transparency in lending, and innovative new value propositions. The continuing rise in rates may result in personal loan offers to decline, however lending solutions such as installment loans and point-of-sale financing will shift the market towards time-sensitive credit sources.

Platformification

Innovation is vital for retail banking companies to effectively meet consumer demands. The financial services industry in Canada largely revolves around the digital age and rising consumer expectations of convenient and frictionless digital access. As a greater number of consumers seek streamlined solutions, retail banking companies in Canada will soon shift their focus to providing ‘one-stop-shops’ that bring both products and services on a single platform.

About Infiniti Research

Established in 2003, Infiniti Research is a leading market intelligence company providing smart solutions to address your business challenges. Infiniti Research studies markets in more than 100 countries to help analyze competitive activity, see beyond market disruptions, and develop intelligent business strategies.